PK-35 vs vs JäPS

PK-35 welcome visitors from a nearby small town of Järvenpää at MagneCit Areena in Pihlajamäki, Helsinki, for this Finnish Ykkönen battle. I will be at at the arena myself watching the match and to, of course, gather information to ensure the best possible analysis for my fans in the future! Many of my fans already know what to expect from Ykkönen, the second tier of Finnish football - low-level football with poor entertainment valu, but consistent profits as the past record proves. I very rarely go for low odds, especially betting on Ykkönen, so winning 80%+ of the picks is not realistic in the long run.The chance of winning this particular pick is 57%. Let's take a closer look at the match..

Taking a look at the standings, this pick probably looks weird to say the least, but I will not be fooled by the league table at all. I have, however, of course lowered PK-35's power rating, that illustrates the teams pure class, as a result of below the expected level performances, but it seems the betting market has gone too far with the same thing already.. The hosts currently occupy the 10th place in the standings with just six points points in the bank, and there is no denying the fact that they have had a very disappointing start to the season! They have one of the biggest players' salary budgets in Ykkönen and are a traditional, good-quality Ykkönen team. They actually even played in Veikkausliiga, the first tier, some years ago. Of course, they are for from that level as a club these days but still operate with resources that are from a different world compared to JäPS. Indeed, their players' salary budget is many times bigger than that of the visitors. Moreover, PK-35 have some players with a lot of Veikkausliiga experience in the squad - for example a HIFK Helsinki legend striker Esa Terävä,34, who is a very dangerous player for this level and will surely improve as the season progresses. He is unavailable today though because of too many many yellow cards previously. Even without Terävä, PK-35 are offensively much better than the young and very inexperienced JäPS. There have, unfortunately, been some rumors, that the hosts do not have the best team spirit, and this is one of the things I will be observing live at the arena today with great interest! I have taken this factor into account in my probability estimation of course. Disappointing results always affect the atmosphere within the team and I think this rumor has probably been given too much emphasis on the betting market..

The hosts have been gradually improving their level recently beating SalPa from Salo in their most recent match 1-0 at home in Finnish Cup. Overall, they have have won three of their latest five matches. I would not say it was a great performance against SalPa, who play in Kakkonen, the 3rd tier though, but surely at least a confidence boost! In their most recent Ykkönen match, they were okay against a better than the standings reflect KPV from Kokkola. It was a balanced match and a 1-1 draw. Before this, they faced the best team in the league, TPS in Turku, and lost 0-2 but were not bad by any means. JäPS, on the other hand, have reached excellent results lately and are currently in the 6th place in the standings with 15 points. There is a lot of media fuss around them at the moment here in Finland which affects the odds too. JäPS do, however, have a bad goal difference as they lost to Gnistan 1-10 (!!!) last month - this more or less proves that they are not really a good team and will surely drop down in the standings as the season progresses. I do admit that I did, along with many other pro bettors, underestimate them in my pre-season analysis, but the betting market hugely over-values them at the moment. Indeed, they beat AC Oulu, a decent Veikkausliiga team, 2-1 at home in Finnish Cup but did not deserve the win really.. Oulu definitely played below their normal level in this match and seemed to under-estimate JäPS. Except for the AC Oulu game, the visitors have faced mainly pretty lowly opponents lately. Yes, they beat PEPO 4-2 away from home but PEPO are indeed a pretty weak team. It was not a performance that would excite me.. They also defeated PIF Parainen - who are totally out of form and have lost five matches in a row now - also on the road, 1-0 but PIF, in fact, recorded much more scoring attempts and the win was somewhat unjustified. JäPS will be without one of their key players, Alieu Ceesay, which surely hurts their chances today. Daniel Kepot is also out.