I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see the latest odds movements and the most possible line ups for today's match up.

Odds on Corinthians won raised up by 0.20 from opening odds on big Asian markets with the highest possible limits and I fully agree with this trend. I see very good chances for Cuiaba to avoid loss in this game.

In overall Cuiaba is solid home team - in previous season they didn't lost in 13 of 19 home matches. In current season they are still without win in 4 home matches (2 losses in the process), but they played better than their results shows. According to the expected goals scored model they should score 4.68, but they scored only 2. Cuiaba coming to this game without any new absences so their line up should look exactly the same like in previous round.

On the other hand Corinthians coming to this game without many players: defender Victor (played in 7 of 9 matches), midfielder Maycon (8 matches), midfielder Paulinho (1 goal in 3 matches), winger Willian (8 matches, second-best player according to the ratings) and striker Jo (1 goal in 4 matches). In addition to that defender Gustavo (1 goal in 8 matches) probably will start on the bench. It's huge blow for the team and should have very bad impact on their performance today.

Corinthians so far had a lot of luck in away matches and they had better results than they really should. They scored 7 goals in away matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 5.83. They conceded 6 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should 7.86. It's difference and no surprise for me that fact they failed to win in 16 of last 24 away league matches.

On those circumstances hosts with great chances to make at least one point.