I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see the latest odds movements and the most possible line ups for today's match up.

Odds on Aston Villa +2.5 AH raised up by 0.10 from opening odds on big Asian markets with the highest possible limits and now I see really good value on that option.

Aston Villa will play with exactly the same line up like in previous match against Burnley (they conceded goal from penalty kick). I trust this formation. Since Gerrard came to the club (26 matches) Aston Villa looks extremely solid in expected goals conceded per game model. In last 6 matches only once they conceded more than one goal (against superb Liverpool). I see today very tight tactic with Luiz and McGinn in the middle, not too much space for Citizens. In addition to that upfront Aston Villa have dangerous players like Watkins or Coutinho and they are able to score. Guests scored in last 5 consecutive matches.

City don't have typical killer upfront - in next season they will Haland, but at the moment is not easy to see 4/5 goals for them today. In last 4 matches in a row City failed to win with more than 2 goals against Aston Villa and I see great value in this option today.

Steven Gerrard is Liverpool legend and for sure he have big motivation to stop City today and give Liverpool chance to win a title.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

我一直等到最后一刻才下这个赌注，因为我想看看今天比赛的最新赔率变化和最可能的阵容。

阿斯顿维拉的指数提高了0.10，目前我认为这个期权很有价值。

阿斯顿维拉将会使用和之前对阵伯恩利一模一样的阵容(他们的点球失球)。我相信这个阵型。自从杰拉德来到俱乐部(26场比赛)，阿斯顿维拉每场比赛的失球率看起来非常稳定。在过去的6场比赛中，他们只有一次失球超过一球(对阵一流的利物浦)。我看到今天路易斯和麦克金在中间，战术非常紧凑，公民队没有太多空间。除此之外，阿斯顿维拉还有像沃特金斯或库蒂尼奥这样的危险球员，他们能够进球。在最近的5场比赛中，客人都有进球。

曼城没有典型的锋线杀手——下赛季他们将迎来哈兰德，但目前来看他们的4/5进球并不容易。在过去的4场比赛中，曼城在对阵阿斯顿维拉的比赛中输掉了2球以上，今天我看到了这个选择的巨大价值。

杰拉德是利物浦的传奇人物，他今天肯定有很大的动力去阻止曼城，给利物浦赢得冠军的机会。