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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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More winners from Japan?

2022-05-21

比赛分析

解读理由

Urawa Reds VS Kashima Antlers

Urawa Reds host Kashima Antlers for this Japanese J1 League round 14 clash at Saitama Stadium Saturday afternoon Beijing time. This is Urawa’s second home game this week. J1 League league offers pretty entertainment for football fans and is, most importantly, very interesting betting-wise and I will be posting more picks on J1 now that the big European leagues come to an end this weekend. Urawa Reds have quite an interesting record from the latest six matches - they have all been draws! They currently occupy the 15th place in this league of 18 teams with 13 points and a goal difference of 14:13. They surely have the potential for much more and will surely climb up the standings as the season progresses! Looking at the events on the pitch and expected goals numbers they would have deserved a won in many of the matches that were draws.. On the other hand, they could easily have lost at least one had the opponent not been unlucky. Indeed, they should have much more points in the bank and the bookies under-estimate them here.

We won a pick on Yokohama F. Marinos with the +0.5 goals handicap option on Wednesday when the hosts took a point through a 3-3 draw in a strange and entertaining match. The visitors started the match well, as expected, and led 3-0 after some 30 minutes! They are a strong team as I wrote on the match preview and hardly anyone believed Urawa would come back.. The team, however, showed excellent fighting spirit and did not give up! Ahead of this match I wrote that their offensive game is is too slow, lacks structure and mentioned that strikers lack skill to take advantage of the scoring chances and are also low in confidence.. This was true for most of the first half. However, it all changed in the second half and their Danish striker Kasper Junker, 28, found the net three times! What a turnaround! Two of these goals were scored after the 80th minute. They could have scored even more goal in the second half. This must be huge boost for their self-confidence and hopefully can bring the energy to this match as well. By raw class they have are a good team and their offensive problems have probably been in part on the mental side. They played two goalless draws against dangerous teams Sanfrecce Hiroshima – who are 6th in the standings and Kawasaki Frontale who currently top the standings! Indeed, their defense has been solid and well-structured. The are definitely the favorites here with a 42% chance to win but even yet another a draw would bring my fans and me winner once again betting on this league! The probability of winning is 71%. I also want to mention the according to a respected German website Transfermarkt.com their players’ total market value is some three million euros higher than the visitors’ squad. By pure class the visitors are only marginally better but the hosts have a good home crowd to support them and the home advantage should not be under-estimated here. Last season they placed 6th with 63 points.

The visitors have over-performed this season and also had some luck on their side and are over-valued by the bookies here. They have been a little better than I estimated before the season started and I have raised their power rating that illustrates the teams’ pure class a notch. They defeated Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo at home 4-1 a week ago in their most recent game. They were surely the better team – and were also clear favorites on the betting market to win – but the 4-1 final score is very misleading. The visitors had 56% ball possession and both teams created 44 dangerous attacks. Before this they were poor away from home and lost 0-3. Sanfrecce Hiroshima were clearly better. They will have to raise their level a lot from this game to win here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

北京时间14日下午,浦和红魔主场迎战鹿岛鹿角队,进行日本J1联赛第14轮比赛。这是浦川本周的第二场主场比赛。J1联赛为球迷提供了很好的娱乐,最重要的是,非常有趣的打赌明智,我将张贴更多的选择J1现在大欧洲联赛结束了这个周末。浦和红魔在最近的六场比赛中有着相当有趣的记录——他们都是平局!他们目前以13分和14:13的进球数在18支球队中排名第15。他们肯定有更多的潜力,随着赛季的进展,他们肯定会爬上排名!看看球场上发生的事情,以及在许多平局的比赛中他们本应该获得的进球数字。另一方面,如果不是对手运气不好,他们很容易就会输掉至少一场比赛。事实上,他们在银行的得分应该更高,而赌马人低估了他们。

周三,在一场奇怪而有趣的比赛中,我们以+0.5的差点赢得了横滨F.马里诺斯,东道主3-3战平,获得了一分。客队如预期般开局良好,30分钟后以3-0领先!他们是一支强大的球队,就像我在预演中写的那样,几乎没有人相信浦川会回来。然而,这个团队表现出了优秀的战斗精神,没有放弃!在这场比赛之前,我写过他们的进攻太慢,缺乏结构,还提到前锋缺乏利用进球机会的技能,自信心也很低。上半年的大部分时间都是如此。然而,下半场一切都变了,28岁的丹麦前锋卡斯珀·容克三次进球!什么转机!其中两个进球是在第80分钟后打进的。他们本可以在下半场进更多的球。这肯定对他们的自信心有很大的提升,也希望能给这场比赛带来能量。从本质上讲,他们是一支优秀的球队,他们的进攻问题可能部分是心理方面的问题。他们两场比赛都是零比零的平局,对手是世界排名第六的广岛和目前排名第一的川崎前锋。事实上,他们的防守是坚固和结构良好的。他们绝对是这里最受欢迎的球队,有42%的机会获胜,但即使再一次平局,我和我的球迷也会再次成为这个联盟的赢家!获胜的概率是71%我还想提一下,根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据,他们球员的总市值比客队高出约300万欧元。从纯阶级来看,客队只是稍微好一点,但东道主有一个很好的主场球迷支持他们,主场优势在这里不应该被低估。上赛季他们以63分排名第六。

客队本赛季表现出色,运气也不错,被这里的赌徒高估了。他们比我在赛季开始前估计的要好一些,我提高了他们的功率等级,这表明了这支球队的纯级。一周前,他们在主场4-1击败了北海道札幌队。他们无疑是更好的球队——在博彩市场上也明显是夺冠热门——但4-1的最终比分非常具有误导性。客队有56%的控球权,两队都制造了44次危险的进攻。在此之前,他们客场很差,0-3输掉了比赛。广岛显然更好。他们将不得不从这场比赛中提高他们的水平来赢得这里。

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