Brage vs Dalkurd

Brage host Dalkurd for this Swedish Superettan clash at Domnarvsvallen in Borlange very early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest level of Swedish football and not of very high-level overall. The tempo is quite slow in most matches. The difference compared to Allsvenskan is substantial. However, betting-wise it is a very interesting league, and I will be posting a lot more picks on Swedish football overall now that the big European leagues are ending this weekend. Here the obvious choice is to go with the visitors +1.5 goals handicap option. The chance for my fans and me to win yet another pick on Swedish football is 72%. We will win even if the visitors lose by one goal’s margin!

The hosts, quite surprisingly, top the standings with 16 points in the bank and a goal difference of 18:7. They have taken five wins in seven matches, and I must say they have exceeded my expectations and I have raised their power rating - that illustrates the teams’ pure class compared to the other teams in the league – from the preseason analysis numbers. Even so, they are surely not the best team in Superettan and will drop down in the standings as the season progresses.. They have now already become too “hot” on the betting market, especially in handicap betting! They have indeed over-performed and hade quite a lot of luck in some matches. For example, four days ago they faced Östersunds away from home and won 3-1 - as quite big favorites. The match was a relatively balanced one on the pitch and both teams created about the same number of scoring attempts and dangerous attacks.

Dalkurd, on the other hand, have grabbed six points so far and occupy the 13th place. They are of course clear underdogs today and I expect their coach Dalibor Savic to choose a cautious, defensive strategy today This of course lowers the number of expected goals. They have had big problems with attacking this season as well and have scored just five goals so far. They do, importantly for our handicap bet, have a solid defense and have allowed just ten goals. Their defense is organized, and they goalkeeper is also good. The midfielders are also active in defending. They took an important, relieving and surely confidence-boosting win in their most recent match against Skövde at home. Skövde are currently in 4th place and a dangerous team. The 3-1 win was a pretty impressive one! Before this they lost several matches in a low and the betting market still under-values them. Against Skövde the finally had a good tempo and more creativity in their attacks and recorded 14 scoring attempts and nine shots on target. I expect them to find the net here as well as Brage’s defense is surely not rock-solid, and they sometime take big risks with the ball..