Newcastle vs Arsenal

Newcastle welcome visitors from London for this English Premier League battle at St. James' Park early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the second-last round of the best league on the planet, and I expect another entertaining match - probably wit at least two or three goals. Newcastle currently occupy the 14th place in the standings with 43 points have not had anything to play for a while. They were in trouble early season but after Eddie Howe took over the team things started to gradually improve for The Magpies. In the January transfer window they also spent some money and with the almost unlimited cash the Saudi owners have, they will surely improve further for next season! They have played well a long time already but the betting market fails to fully realize this and have offered them too high odds on many occasions. We will try to extend the winning streak with the Newcastle +1 handicap bet - a draw would be enough. The hosts have a 56% chance of avoiding defeat here.

Whilst the hosts have nothing at stake as a team many players are still fighting for their career! Newcastle could offer many players salaries not realistically available for the elsewhere! They also have an extraordinary enthusiastic - even by English standards - home crowd which will surely boost them today! Indeed, they have won six of their latest seven home games! The home advantage here is bigger than on average! Arsenal are in an intense battle with Tottenham for a top4 finish - and subsequently a Champions league ticket for next season. Arsenal have failed to qualify for this competition in recent years. I have taken the motivation factor into account of course. I have written before that betting on the more motivated team is not always the “ winning recipe” as my fans have seen – and will see more of in the future – especially this week when the big European leagues come gradually come to an end.. My fans and me have a super interesting week betting-wise starting today! At the end of the day the picks posted on the platform are always decided based on the odds available for my fans I warmly recommend my fans to always pay very close attention to my (%)probability estimations as sometimes it can happen that odds offered by China Lottery have been slashed and do not represent value anymore. In this case the wise thing to do is to find another match to bet on.

Newcastle lost to the best team in the world 0-5 Man City away from home in their most recent match but this does not worry me too much. The super motivated hosts were simply too good that day.. The match was not quite as unbalanced as the final score would suggest though. Man City created 3.75 in expected goals Newcastle's number was 1.34. Before this they lost to Liverpool 0-1 at home and did not deserve anything.But then again, Liverpool are the second-best team in the world and Champions League finalists.. To my amazement, these unsurprising losses - as well the motivation factor - seem to affect the odds too heavily here.. I want to also mention that both Arsenal and Newcastle have been lucky this season in terms of expected points - Arsenal have grabbed seven more points than they would have deserved. Newcastle's number is four. This is another statistic commonly used by professional bettors. I rate the "re-born" hosts in the 11th place in my power ratings the reflect the teams' pure class.. Arsenal are fifth-best, but with the current absentees they are not much better than West Ham.

Newcastle's treatment room is gradually emptying but many players' situation is unclear at the time of writing this 16:00 Beijing time. Arsenal's situation, however, in terms of players available is grim! Defender Gabriel Magalhaes was withdrawn with a muscular problem against Tottenham, and as result, participation is currently up unclear. Arteta will already be without the important Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey - as well as the suspended Holding - so Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ben White, who is far from 100% fit, should form the centet-back pairing here, assuming that the latter is fit enough to play in the first place.. Xhaka is reportedly not fully fit but should still play. Arsenal's defense looks very shaky to say the least Newcastle's Allan Saint-Maximin must already smell blood! Arsenal's forward Nktetiah has scored some goals lately, but I think he is seriously over-rated.. Just watch him closely.. Allan,however,is a very fast and super skilled player - follow him too! Martinelli was also seen hobbling just before his substitution in the 64th minute the London derby.. Arteta's often cautious approach might see Emile Smith Rowe instead given the nod on the left here.

Before the London derby Arsenal took a 2-1 win over Leeds - who are currently in the 17th place and fighting to avoid relegation. Leeds’ defender Luke Ayling,30, took an amazingly stupid red card already in the 27th minute – subsequently hurting Leeds’s chances a lot.. They did, however,manage to score in the second half to make it 2-1. They even had a genuine opportunity to get a draw! Arsenal did not impress me despite the clear possession and the expected goals statistic (2.11- 1.02). Before this the visitors beat West Ham away from home 2-1. The hosts, however, had 56% ball possession and recorded more completed passes as well as dangerous attacks.. Overall, the match was a balanced one. We must realize, though, that Arsenal faced West Ham at an ideal time. West Ham had just played a mentally and physically demanding first leg of UEFA Europe League semifinals match against German Eintracht Frankfurt and already had their focus fully on the second leg. The betting market, of course, was aware of this and estimated Arsenal having a 52-53% chance of winning.. Before this they beat Man United, who my fans already probably are aware of - have been – taking into account their resources and list of super stars - simply utter rubbish this season, especially on the road. Even so, the match was a pretty balanced one and the 3-1 final score is gives a wrong impression of the events on the pitch! Arsenal had 55% ball possession, but both teams had 14 scoring attempts and Man United recorded more a little dangerous attacks – 42-39. Arsenal, however, did create slightly more in expected goals - 2.33-2.16. We easily won yet another pick last week when Tottenham crushed Arsenal but the visitors' match was seriously hindered by defender Rob Holding's red card in the 32nd minute. Tottenham were leading 1-0 at this point and would probably have won even without the sending off! The four wins in a row before the Tottenham game, they beat for example the error-prone Chelsea 4-2 away from home, makes the betting market respect the team motivated visitors too much here.

GOOD LUCK!

北京时间周二凌晨，纽卡斯尔欢迎来自伦敦的游客参加在圣詹姆斯公园举行的英超联赛。这是这个星球上最好的联赛的倒数第二轮，我期待另一场有趣的比赛——可能至少有两三个进球。纽卡斯尔目前以43分占据积分榜第14位，已经有一段时间没有什么可打的了。他们在赛季初遇到了麻烦，但在 Eddie Howe 接手球队后，喜鹊队的情况开始逐渐好转。在一月份的转会窗口中，他们也花了一些钱，而沙特老板拥有几乎无限的现金，他们肯定会在下个赛季进一步进步！他们已经打得很好很长时间了，但是博彩市场并没有完全意识到这一点，并且在很多情况下给他们提供了过高的赔率。我们将尝试通过纽卡斯尔 +1 - 平局就足够了。主队有 56% 的机会在这里避免输球。

虽然主队没有任何利害关系，但许多球员仍在为自己的职业生涯而战！纽卡斯尔可以为许多球员提供其他地方无法提供的薪水！他们也有非凡的热情——即使按照英国的标准——今天肯定会鼓舞他们！事实上，他们在最近的七场主场比赛中赢了六场！这里的主场优势大于平均水平！阿森纳正与托特纳姆热刺进行一场激烈的争夺，争夺前四名——随后是下赛季的欧冠门票。阿森纳近年来未能获得参加这项比赛的资格。我当然考虑了动机因素。我之前写过，投注更有动力的球队并不总是像我的球迷所看到的那样“获胜的秘诀”——未来还会看到更多——尤其是本周欧洲大联赛逐渐结束的时候。

纽卡斯尔在最近的一场比赛中客场0-5输给了世界上最好的球队曼城，但这并没有让我太担心。那天超级积极的东道主实在是太好了。不过，这场比赛并不像最终比分所暗示的那样不平衡。曼城创造了 3.75 个预期进球，纽卡斯尔的进球数是 1.34。在此之前，他们在主场以 0-1 输给了利物浦，一无所获。但话又说回来，利物浦是世界第二好的球队，也是欧冠决赛选手。令我惊讶的是，这些并不令人惊讶的失利——以及动力因素- 似乎在这里对赔率的影响太大了。我还想提一下，阿森纳和纽卡斯尔本赛季在预期积分方面都很幸运 - 阿森纳比他们应得的多获得了 7 分。纽卡斯尔的号码是四。这是专业博彩玩家常用的另一个统计数据。我将“重生”的东道主评为第 11 位，这反映了球队的纯粹水平。阿森纳排名第五，但在目前缺席的情况下，他们并不比西汉姆好多少。

纽卡斯尔的伤病正在逐渐好转，但截至北京时间16:00撰写本文时，许多球员的情况尚不清楚。然而，就可用球员而言，阿森纳的情况很严峻！后卫加布里埃尔·马加拉斯在对阵托特纳姆热刺时因肌肉问题被退赛，因此目前的参与情况尚不清楚。阿尔特塔已经失去了重要的基兰·蒂尔尼和托马斯·帕蒂——以及被停赛的控股——所以远非 100% 健康的富康武宏和本·怀特应该在这里形成中后卫组合，假设后者是健康的一开始就足够上场了。据报道，扎卡身体并不完全健康，但仍然应该上场。阿森纳的防守看起来很不稳定，至少纽卡斯尔的艾伦·圣马克西姆肯定已经闻到了血腥味！阿森纳前锋恩克泰蒂亚最近打进了一些进球，但我认为他被严重高估了。仔细观察他吧。不过，艾伦是一个速度非常快且技术超强的球员——也跟着他吧！在伦敦德比的第 64 分钟换人前，马丁内利也被看到蹒跚而行。阿尔特塔经常谨慎的做法可能会让埃米尔·史密斯·罗在左边出场。

在伦敦德比战之前，阿森纳2-1战胜利兹联，利兹联目前排在第17位，为保级而战。利兹队的后卫卢克·艾林，30 岁，在第 27 分钟就吃到了一张非常愚蠢的红牌——随后严重伤害了利兹联的机会。然而，他们在下半场成功得分，将比分改写为 2-1。他们甚至有机会获得平局！尽管拥有明显的控球权和预期的进球数（2.11-1.02），但阿森纳并没有给我留下深刻印象。在此之前，客队客场2-1击败西汉姆联。然而，东道主拥有 56% 的控球率，并记录了更多完成的传球和危险的进攻。总的来说，这场比赛是一场平衡的比赛。不过，我们必须意识到，阿森纳面对西汉姆的时机很理想。西汉姆刚刚在欧足联欧洲联赛半决赛首回合对阵德国法兰克福的比赛中进行了一场精神和体力要求很高的比赛，他们已经将注意力完全放在了次回合上。博彩市场当然意识到了这一点，并估计阿森纳有 52-53% 的获胜机会。在此之前，他们击败了曼联，我的球迷可能已经知道 - 已经 - 考虑到他们的资源和超级明星名单——本赛季简直是一派胡言，尤其是在客场。即便如此，这场比赛还是相当平衡的，最终3-1的比分让人对球场上的事情产生了错误的印象！阿森纳拥有 55% 的控球率，但两支球队都有 14 次得分尝试，而曼联则记录了更多危险的进攻——42-39。然而，阿森纳确实创造了更多的预期进球——2.33-2.16。上周托特纳姆热刺击败阿森纳时，我们轻松赢得了另一个选秀权，但客队的比赛在第 32 分钟被后卫罗伯·霍尔德的红牌严重阻碍。托特纳姆热刺此时以 1-0 领先，即使没有被罚下，也可能会赢！热刺比赛前的四连胜，他们在客场4-2击败了容易失误的切尔西，让博彩市场对球队的敬意过于强烈。

预测纽卡主场不败，祝好运！