Sampdoria vs Fiorentina

Sampdoria host Fiorentina for this Italian Serie A round 37 clash at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa. Serie A is the fourth-best league in the world after English Premier League, Spanish La Liga. It offers high-class entertainment for football fans. Overall, Serie A football is not as offensive and aggressive as particularly in Bundesliga and the tempo is slower than in the top3 leagues. A total of 38 rounds will be played in Serie A - so both teams have only two more matches to play. Only Sampdoria have something the play for here and the stakes for them are indeed high for them! Let’s take a closer look the match that will hopefully be the 8th winner in a row for my fans and me!

The current odds of 1.76 offered by China Lottery are too high and I expect them to drop.. The chance of winning based on in-depth and all the information available at the time of posting this pick is 64.5%. Sampdoria have had a somewhat disappointing season and currently occupy the 16th place in this league of 20 teams in total. They have grabbed 33 points and lost 21 of the 36 matches! Moreover, their goals difference is bad – 42:59. They have, however, been slightly unlucky this season in terms of expected points. This is a statistic commonly used by professional football bettors. Interestingly though, they have scored six goals more than they would have deserved in terms of expected goals.. However, they are over-rated here by the betting market as about two hours ago it become clear that they will avoid relegation! They can thank Internazionale Milan for this as the reigning champions beat Cagliari away from home 3-1. The teams are end up in the 18-20th places are relegated to Serie B for next season. Cagliari, in the 18th position, have 29 points in the bank – and just match left so they cannot topple Sampdoria anymore. This must be a huge relief for them but also means they but also lowers their motivation! Motivation is a huge factor in sports betting as we have seen for example yesterday when a small team Cadiz were the better team at home against the champions Real Madrid! What a fight from them it was! Cadiz are in an intense struggle to avoid relegation which is probably the biggest motivation there is in sports. I, of course, posted a pick on Cadiz with the +1 goal option and we won the 9th LaLiga pick in a row.! Having said that, betting on the more motivated team is not always the “ winning recipe” as my fans have seen – and will see more of in the future – especially this week when the big European leagues come to an end.. My fans and me have a super interesting week betting-wise starting today! At the end of the day the picks posted on the platform are always decided based on the odds available. I recommend my fans to always pay very close attention to my (%)probability estimations as sometimes it can happen that odds offered by China Lottery have been slashed and do not represent value anymore. Having a positive expected value is, of course, a prerequisite for making a long-term betting from sports betting. In this scenario simply betting on another match is the smart choice.

I expect the hosts to rotate their squad here - perhaps even several players. I would assume Sampdoria’s coach Marco Giampaolo, 54, to give some of his younger, promising players to shine here. Surely, the hosts will want to entertain their fans in their last home match of the season but I am afraid that Fiorentina will ruin this plan.. Sampdoria are definitely not in good form at the moment. In their most recent match, they lost to Lazio 0-2 away from home. Lazio are, of course, a quite good team though but still I was unimpressed by Sampdoria’s performance as a whole.. Lazio dominated the match 62% ball possession and recorded ten shots on target the visitors had just two. The hosts also completed almost 300 passes more and had 61 dangerous attacks – Sampdoria’s number was very low – 21. They looked vulnerable in defense and if they cannot improve especially in this department they will probably lose! One must ask, though, why would they defend hard in front of their demanding fans with nothing at stake.. I think they will instead be aggressive and try to score a few goals. This will probably cost them as Fiorentina have several skilled offensive players and can be deadly on the counterattacks! They are a dangerous team offensively – especially against a low-level opponent like Sampdoria.. I recommend my fans to follow in particular Brazilian forward Arthur Cabral,24, closely as he has the potential for more than we have seen lately.. Fiorentina have scored a total of 56 goals this season which is more than for example Juventus who occupy the fourth place in the standings. Before the match in Rome Sampdoria beat a lowly team Genoa 1-0 at home in an extremely low-level game! Interestingly though, Genoa generated more in expected goals – 1.86-1.45. It was not a convincing performance at all.

Fiorentina, on the other hand, currently occupy the 7th position the standings and are one point behind Lazio with one more match than the team from Rome left to play. Teams that place 5th and 6th qualify for the Europa League for next season. This would be a great achievement for the visitors who are not among the biggest clubs in this league by financial resources or historical success. They, in fact, sold their top striker Dusan Vlahovic to Juventus in January for a big price and this of course weakened them. However, the betting market and betting market have given too much emphasis to this. In their most recent match, they were excellent beating a good team Roma 2-0 at home. Both goals were scored early on – Gonzalez netted the penalty in the 5th minute and Bonaventure extended the lead in six minutes later. This goal was assisted by Cabral. Fiorentina generated 1.88 in expected goals – Roma’s number was just 0.48. A fully deserved three points! I expect another explosive start from them today with the probable lineup: Terracciano, Venuti, Milenkovic, Igor, Biraghi; Bonaventura, Torreira, Duncan; Gonzalez, Cabral, Saponara. Long-term absentee Gaetano Castrovilli and full-back Alvaro Odriozola will be out of action due to injury, whilst Sofyan Amrabat is also unavailable due to suspension. As for the hosts Manolo Gabbiadini and Sebastian Giovinco are both still sidelined.

Before the game against Roma the visitors were defeated in Milano but AC Milan are the current leaders and Fiorentina played at a reasonable level overall. Offensively I would have perhaps expected a bit more from them though. They often played at a too slow tempo. Today they will surely get much more scoring chances! We must also remember that Fiorentina are a much bigger club than the hosts by players’ total market value. The total market value reflects the true class of a club well as the football (player) market is a global one. On average a player’s market value illustrates his level on the pitch well! Younger, promising players, of course, have a higher market value than older ones if the players when the players are at the same level. Say Leo Messi is not nearly valuable as in terms of market value – despite his good level at pretty old age – as Håland who will play for Manchester City next season. According to a respected and pretty famous German website Transfermarkt.com Sampdoria’s squad is valued at almost 95.90 million euros but I would estimate that 70-83 million would be a more accurate number! At least three players are over-valued.. Fiorentina’s squad is valued at whopping 237 million but even this is too low! The fair amount would be around 255 million. Lastly, I want to mention that the visitors would have deserved two more points in terms of expected points this season..

GOOD LUCK and welcome to follow my awesome picks!