Empoli VS Salernitana

Empoli host Salernitana for this Italian Serie A round 37 clash at Stadio Carlo Castellani Saturday evening Beijing time. A total of 38 rounds will be played. This is the 4th best league in the world and sometimes offers good entertainment for football fans but both Empoli and Salernitana are quite weak - especially offensively so maybe watching another match is a good idea.. However, betting-wise this is an interesting clash. Empoli currently occupy the 14th place in the standings with 37 points but are in abysmal form! They have won just one match this year! They also do not have particularly good home crowd, so the home advantage is lower than on average in Serie A.

Empoli took the odd and very surprising win a few weeks ago at home - 3-2 over Napoli - who are of course a good team but not as good as the table suggests. They have taken seven more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points. This win seems to have been given way too much emphasis on the betting market. One quite good performance does not change the fact that Empoli are in bad form and many players have a somewhat lazy attitude. I guess they are already waiting for summer holidays. I want to highlight that professional bettor never over-reacts to a single match too much. Moreover, the 3-2 final score does not reflect the events on the pitch. Napoli had close to 60% ball possession and recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks. Empoli did, however, create a little more in expected goals. Napoli were simply below their normal level in this game. In their most recent match against Inter away from home Empoli were dominated in way rarely seen at this level! The final score was 4-2 but should have been 5-0 or perhaps 6-1. Inter recorded almost 40 (!) shots on target and had 65% ball possession. They expected goals ratio was 5.93 - 0.56 in favor of the hosts. Amazing numbers! Expected goals is a statistic commonly used by professional football bettors. I want to also add that Empoli only had 12 dangerous attacks in this unbalanced match. I also want to mention the fact Empoli have been lucky this season in terms of expected points. This is also one of the many key statistics used by professional football analysts.

Salernitana, on the other hand, are fine form! They have not lost any of their six most recent matches – taking four wins. The also would have deserved three more points in terms of expected points this season and are currently under-valued by the betting market! At the moment they are better than poor Empoli. Most importantly, they are in fierce battle to avoid relegation which hugely motivates them. Their team spirit seems to be great which is not always the case with struggling teams in a high-pressure situation. They currently occupy the 17th place in this league of 20 teams. The teams that place 18-20th are relegated to Serie B for next season. Cagliari and Genoa are a striking distance in the standings and the visitors really need the three points! They would have deserved a win in their most recent against Cagliari at home, but it was a 1-1 draw. Salernitana created 1.87 in expected goals – Cagliari’s number was just 0.43. Before this they comfortably defeated Venezia at home despite the seemingly narrow 2-1 final score. They only allowed the visitors 0.29 in expected goals and generated 1.75 themselves. Salernitana have a 52% chance to win this one and bring my fans and me the 7th winner in a row!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间14日晚，恩波利主场迎战意大利甲级联赛第37轮对手萨勒尼塔纳。共有38轮比赛。这是世界上排名第四的联赛，有时能为球迷提供很好的娱乐，但恩波利和萨勒尼塔纳都很弱——尤其是进攻，所以也许看另一场比赛是一个好主意。然而，就打赌而言，这是一场有趣的冲突。恩波利目前以37分排在积分榜的第14位，但现在的状态非常糟糕!他们今年只赢了一场比赛!他们也没有特别好的主场球迷，所以主场优势低于意甲的平均水平。

恩波利几周前在主场以3-2战胜那不勒斯，取得了一场奇怪而又令人惊讶的胜利。那不勒斯当然是一支优秀的球队，但并没有积分榜上显示的那么好。他们比预期得分多得了7分。这场胜利似乎过于强调了博彩市场。一场不错的比赛并不能改变恩波利现在状态不佳的事实，许多球员都有些懒惰。我想他们已经在等暑假了。我想强调的是，职业赌徒绝不会对一场比赛反应过度。此外，3-2的最终比分并不能反映球场上的情况。那不勒斯的控球率接近60%，并记录了更多的进攻和危险的进攻。恩波利确实创造了更多的预期进球。那不勒斯在这场比赛中只是低于他们的正常水平。在最近的一场客场对阵国际米兰的比赛中，恩波利以一种罕见的方式统治着球队!最终比分是4-2，但本应是5-0或6-1。国际米兰有近40次射门命中目标，控球率达到65%。他们预计主队的进球率为5.93比0.56。惊人的数字!预期进球是职业足球赌徒常用的一个统计数字。我还想补充一点，恩波利在这场不平衡的比赛中只有12次危险的进攻。我还想提一个事实，恩波利本赛季在预期积分方面是幸运的。这也是职业足球分析师使用的许多关键数据之一。

另一方面，萨勒尼塔娜是很好的形式!他们最近的六场比赛没有输过一场，取得了四场胜利。在本赛季的预期积分方面，他也应该得到3分，但目前被博彩市场低估了!现在他们比可怜的恩波利强多了。最重要的是，他们在激烈的战斗，以避免降级极大地激励他们。他们的团队精神似乎很棒，但在高压环境下苦苦挣扎的团队并不总是这样。他们目前在20支球队中占据第17位。排名18-20的球队将在下赛季降至乙级。卡利亚里和热那亚在积分榜上遥遥领先，客队真的需要三分!他们本应该在最近一次主场对阵卡利亚里的比赛中取得胜利，但结果却是1-1平局。萨勒尼塔纳创造了1.87个预期进球，而卡利亚里只有0.43个。在此之前，他们在主场轻松击败了威尼斯人，尽管最后比分似乎是2-1。他们只给了访客0.29个预期进球，而他们自己却创造了1.75个。

北单选择高指数的萨勒尼塔那。