River Plate vs Platense

River Plate host Platense for this Argentinian Copa De La Liga Profesional round 14 clash at Estadio Antonio Vespucio Liberti in Buenos Aires. The level of this league is surprisingly low taking into account how good a football country Argentina is.. They are one of the favorites in the World cup in Qatar later this year. This is a relatively low-scoring league – similarly to many other South American leagues. The betting market, however, sees this match as a lot more high-scoring than on average in this league. I agree that the goal expectancy is higher than normally, but the betting market seems to exaggerate River Plate’s scoring ability and over-valuates them – especially in handicap betting. Yes, they did crush a lowly team Sarmiento Junin a week ago 7-0(!) away from home and did dominate the match but surely the final score heavily flatters River Plate! 1-3 or perhaps 1-4 would have been a more justified result. This one match probably affects the odds here too much.. We must remember that in three of their latest matches the hosts have scored more than one goal just twice. The handicap +1.5 goals handicap bet on the visitors is a winner even if they lose by one goal’s difference! The probability of my fans and myself winning once again is 64%.

River Plate are, as I have written many times before, one the biggest teams in Argentina by historical success and financial resources. They have, however, had a slightly disappointing season and do not even lead Group A and have even lost three matches.. Platense, on the other hand, have not won any of their latest five matches and them winning would surely be a surprise today as well. Even so, the match is in my opinion more balanced than the betting market thinks. We must remember that Platense have taken 3 draws in their most recent five matches and have lost just one by more than one goal’s difference. They have recorded two draws in a row allowing a total of just two goals against tough opponents as clear underdogs! Both were 1-1 draws and Platense defended well and in an organized way. This is what I expect from them once again today!

GOOD LUCK!

河床将在布宜诺斯艾利斯的安东尼奥维斯普西奥自由球场举办阿根廷职业联赛第 14 轮比赛，对阵普拉滕斯。考虑到阿根廷是一个足球大国，但这个联赛的水平出奇地低。阿根廷是今年晚些时候在卡塔尔举行的世界杯的热门球队之一。这是一个进球相对较少的联赛——与许多其他南美联赛类似。然而，市场认为这场比赛的进球比联盟平均水平高得多。我同意进球预期高于正常水平，但市场似乎夸大了河床的进球能力并高估了它们——尤其是在让分玩法中。是的，他们确实在一周前客场以 7-0（！）击败了一支实力较弱的球队 Sarmiento Junin，并且确实统治了比赛，但最终的比分肯定让 River Plate 大为受宠若惊！ 1-3 或者 1-4 可能是更合理的结果。这场比赛可能对本场的数据影响太大了..我们必须请记住，在最近的三场比赛中，主队只两次打进了超过一个球。让分+1.5 选择客队，即使他们输掉一球也可以赢！本场我们收的概率是 64%。

正如我之前多次提过的，河床队是阿根廷历史上的成功和财力最大的球队之一。然而，他们的赛季略显令人失望，甚至输掉了三场比赛。另一方面，普拉滕斯在最近的五场比赛中没有赢过任何一场，他们今天的胜利肯定会是大冷门。即便如此，我认为这场比赛比市场认为的更平衡。我们必须记住，普拉滕斯在最近的五场比赛中取得了 3 次平局，并且仅有一次以一球以上的差距输掉了比赛。他们连续两场平局，在面对强硬的对手时总共只丢了两个球。都是 1-1 的平局，普拉腾斯防守良好且有条理。这就是我今天再次选择他们的理由！

祝好运