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Is Cadiz able to beat the leader?

2021-01-31

比赛分析

西甲

已完赛

星期日2021-01-31 23:15

解读理由

This should be an easy game for Atletico Madrid. Asian handicap -1 for the away team is my bet here.

Cadiz is a weak side, newly promoted with lack of quality. Stated the campaign with very good performances and results, but in the last weeks we saw their real level. Winless in the last 8 league games, this team is suffering a lot because many players were out with covid and the club didnt make any winter transfer.

For this match, they will have again some players out for different reasons (covid, injuries, etc) - Jose Mari, Akapo, Luismi, Alex Fernandez, Javi Navarro, Alfonso Espino.

Cadiz is a very defensive side who suffers a lot playing at home, because they feel better being dominated and with spaces, being dangerous at counter attacks. But Atletico Madrid is a team who defends very well and doesnt allow many chances, so it will be difficult for Cadiz here. With only 17 goals in 20 games, they have the second worst attack of the league.

They are in 12th position, 8 points above relegation, so they don't have big urgency here. The club is still looking for new transfers.

On the other side, Atletico Madrid seems unstoppable. The title is almost in the pocket for them, and they have huge motivation to win it. They have the best defence in all big european leagues (only 8 goals conceded in 18 games), won 15 of 18 games played and all players are full of confidence.

For this match they will miss Carrasco and Hermoso due to covid, but both have good replacements with Felipe and Lodi.

The main difference and strong point of Atletico Madrid is the attack. They don't need too many chances to score goals, as they have a lot of quality in attack (Luis Suaez, Joao Felix, Lemar, Llorente…) and all players look in perfect shape. Even when they don't play well at all, like against Alaves, they achieve the victory thanks to their quality upfront.

I’m expecting a match dominated by Atletico Madrid, a tight game without too many chances. Cadiz will try to be defensive and not concede a goal soon (as coach said). But if Atletico de Madrid has the ball and domination, sooner or later will find the goal due to their quality. Cadiz tried the same plan against Sevilla in the previous weekend where they lost 3:0 and were totally dominated.

There’s the risk of a short result here (0:1), but the asian handicap looks the right bet for me here.


对于马德里竞技,这应该是一场轻松的比赛。我看好他们客场赢球。

加的斯是实力较弱的球队,本赛季刚刚升级。开局表现很好,效率很高,但是在过去的几周里,我们看到了他们的真实水平。在过去的8场联赛中没有胜利,许多球员因为疫情原因缺阵,而俱乐部没有进行任何冬季转会。

在这场比赛中,很多将由于不同的原因(狂热,受伤等)缺席比赛-Jose Mari,Akapo,Luismi,Alex Fernandez,Javi Navarro和Alfonso Espino。

加的斯是个防守能力很强的球队,但在主场作战表现不佳,他们喜欢对上压上然后获得空间,在反击时很危险。但是马德里竞技的防守很好,并且不会留下太多的机会,因此加的斯将会很艰难。在20场比赛中只有17个进球,他们的进攻排名倒数第二。

他们排在第12位,领先降级区8分,因此他们暂时没有太大的紧迫感。俱乐部仍在寻找新的转会目标。

另一方面,马德里竞技似乎势不可挡。冠军头衔对他们来说几乎唾手可得,他们有巨大的动力去赢得冠军。他们拥有联赛最好的防守(在18场比赛中只有8个失球),在18场比赛中赢得15场,所有球员都充满了信心。

在这场比赛中,由于疫情他们将缺少卡拉斯科和埃莫索,但他们都有费利佩和洛迪这样出色替代者。

马德里竞技和加的斯的主要区别和长处是进攻。他们不需要太多机会得分,因为他们有很高的进攻效率(路易斯·苏伊士,乔奥·费利克斯,勒马尔,洛伦特...),而且所有球员的状态都非常出色。即使当他们表现不佳时(例如与Alaves对抗),他们也可以凭借出色的实力取得胜利。

我预测这将是一场马德里竞技主导的比赛,加的斯没有太多机会。加的斯将努力防守争取不会很快失球(如教练所说)。但是如果马德里竞技拥有球权,那么他们的实力早晚会取得进球。加的斯在上周末对塞维利亚的比赛中尝试了同样的计划,他们0:3输球并完全被对手占据了主动。

可能会有马竞1:0小胜的风险,不过我认为马竞最终可以赢球。

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