Lecce vs Pordenone

Lecce host Pordenone at Stadio Via del Mare early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the last round Serie B, the second level of Italian football. The level of this league is a lot lower than that of Serie A. The differences in class between the top-teams and the worst teams are substantial. Lecce currently top the standings with 68 points and are super motivated to return to Serie A! They are not a big team in Italy but are still a traditional Serie A team. The situation is extremely tight as Monza have only one points less and Cremonense also have 66 points in the bank! The top-2 teams are promoted directly.

The visitors, on the other hand, are a horribly bad team and have nothing to play for! They have already relegated a long time ago, and the morale and team spirit are low. Motivation is very important for this -1.5 handicap bet that needs the hosts to win by at least two goals’ difference to bring my fans and myself another winner. A rarely post picks with -1.5 handicaps – not to mention bigger handicaps -especially on a low-scoring league like Serie B but here the -1.5 is a solid selection! The probability of winning is 68%. The visitors will probably lose even the last drops of fighting spirit as soon as the hosts take the lead meaning that they will not defend in a particularly committed way and will surely try to avoid injuries and even a final score like 4-0 or 5-0 would not be a big surprise here. It has looked recently like they are waiting for summer holidays already.. They did take a point in an awfully low-level match at home in the previous round versus the second last team Crotone. It was a 3-3. This does not excite me at all. Before this they lost 3 matches in a row. They were particularly bad on the 18th of this month and lost 1-4 at home to Benevento and were totally dominated by the visitors. The visitors’ defense is extremely shaky and the have allowed an amazing 70 goals! Their strikers, on the other hand, are totally useless – especially against quality defenses.

Lecce lost to Vicenza in the last round 1-2 away from home but were the better team on the pitch. They crated more scoring chances, shots on goal and had more completed passes as well as dangerous attacks. Vicanza are fighting to avoid relegation so a tough match was in the cards to start with.. This result has affected the betting market too much in my opinion. Also, the betting market seemingly fails to understand just how weak the visitors are by raw class but and also the poor mental state of the team. Lecce are also much bigger club than the visitors by players’ total market value. The total market value reflects the true class of a club well as the football (player) market is a global one. On average a player’s market value illustrates his level on the pitch well! Younger, promising players, of course, have a higher market value than older ones if the players when the players are at the same level. Say Leo Messi is not nearly valuable as in terms of market value – despite his good level at pretty old age - as Manchester United’s Jadon Sancho. According to a respected and pretty famous German website Transfermarkt.com Lecce’s squad is valued at almost 33 million euros but I would estimate that 39-40 million would be a more accurate number! At least 4 players are under-valued.. Pordenone’s squad is valued at 9.90 million. This is surely too high number for this crappy club. The fair amount would be around 7.5 million. The visitors would need a lot of luck to get anything from this match.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六凌晨，莱切主场迎战波尔迪诺内。这是意大利足球第二阶段乙级联赛的最后一轮比赛。这个联赛的水平比意甲低得多。顶级球队和最差球队之间的等级差别很大。莱切目前以68分高居积分榜榜首，并且非常渴望回到意甲!他们在意大利不是一支大球队，但仍然是一支传统的意甲球队。情况非常紧张，蒙扎只少了一分，克雷莫纳塞也有66分!排名前2的球队直接晋级。

另一方面，客队是一支糟糕透顶的球队，没有什么值得为之比赛的!他们已经降级很久了，士气和团队精神都很低落。在这个负1.5差点的比赛中，动力是非常重要的，需要东道主赢得至少两个球的差距，才能给我和我的球迷带来另一个冠军。一个很少有负1.5分的选秀权——更不用说更大的劣势了——特别是在像乙级这样的低得分联赛，但在这里负1.5分是一个可靠的选择!获胜的概率是68%。过去滴游客甚至可能会失去战斗精神一旦主机带头意味着他们不会特别承诺的方式捍卫和肯定会尽量避免受伤,甚至最后得分4 - 0或5不会是一个大惊喜。最近看起来他们好像已经在等暑假了。他们确实在上一轮主场对阵第二支最后一支克罗托内的比赛中拿了一分。比分是3比3。这一点也不让我兴奋。在此之前，他们连输了三场。他们在本月18日的比赛中表现尤其糟糕，在主场1-4输给了贝尼文托，完全被客队控制。客队的防守非常不牢靠，他们攻入了惊人的70球!另一方面，他们的前锋完全没用——尤其是面对高质量的防守。

莱切在上一轮客场1-2负于维琴察，但他们在场上表现更好。他们创造了更多的得分机会，更多的射门，更多的完成传球和危险的进攻。维康萨正在努力避免降级，所以一场艰难的比赛是在卡开始。在我看来，这个结果对博彩市场的影响太大了。此外，博彩市场似乎无法理解客队的实力有多弱，也无法理解球队的精神状态有多差。从球员的总市值来看，莱切也比客队大得多。总市值反映了一个俱乐部的真实等级，足球(球员)市场是一个全球性的市场。平均来说，一个球员的市场价值很好地说明了他在球场上的水平!当然，年轻、有前途的球员在同等水平时比老球员有更高的市场价值。比如说，梅西在市场价值方面没有曼联的桑丘那么有价值——尽管他在很老的时候水平还不错。根据一个著名的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，莱切的球队价值将近3300万欧元，但我估计3900 - 4000万会是一个更准确的数字!至少有4名球员被低估了。波德诺内的球队价值990万美元。这个数字对这个破俱乐部来说肯定太高了。合理的数额应该在750万左右。客队要从这场比赛中得到任何东西都需要很大的运气。