Cadiz asian handicap +0.25 is my bet here.

Cadiz is fighting to avoid relegation. They are one point above Granada (who is marking the relegation zone) and one below Mallorca; in both cases with one less game played. So they need points today.

They are full of confidence after the victory on the weekend in the Camp Nou 0:1. Usually, small teams use to make a bad performance due to lack of motivation or relaxation after a big win (Barcelona, Real Madrid, etc) but here I dont think so because due to their situation, surely that game game them exactly what they need: confidence to play the end of the season at 200% and achieve the target of avoid relegation.

In that game vs Barcelona Cadiz used reserves, so today we can expect a full squad rested and motivated. With 6 games remaining to play, they have three very difficult meetings (Sevilla and Real Sociedad away, Real Madrid at home) so need to achieve points in the other three meetings against teams without targets (Athletic today, Elche at home, Alaves in the last round).

With new coach Sergio the team improved a lot. He has long experience with small teams fighting to avoid relegation, and the team looks solid and hard to beat, with only 2 defeats in the last 9 rounds (Atletico Madrid and Betis).

On the other hand, Athletic Bilbao is already without motivation. No targets for them, far from Europe and one more year, a disappointing middle table position. On the weekend they made an awful performance against Celta, where players showed a clear lack of motivation and intensity.

They have been a weak visitor, with only 3 victories in 16 rounds and in the last 5 away games only achieved one point. Especially against small teams (where they need bigger motivation to play at 100%) is where they made the worst performances.

Hosts have much more motivation here, and big support at home. They need points to achieve the target, and have a great chance to do it against a team with nothing on play and already showing a huge lack of motivation and intensity. I’m expecting Cadiz at 200% today and Athletic at 50%.